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techkenyot.com November 24, 2017


Oil price drops more than US$1on IEA warning of shrinking demand

14 November 2017, 07:27 | Hattie Nash

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US on the cusp of history's biggest oil and gas boom, IEA forecasts

The largest disruptive force to supply will be shale production in the United States - the IEA estimates USA crude oil will reach peak output in the 2020s of around 17m bpd.

The IEA also today released its latest World Energy Outlook, in which it said global oil demand will fall modestly due to the rise in electric cars.

The US Energy Information Administration estimated that the US became the world's top petroleum and natural gas producer in 2012. But the expected increase would put the US further into uncharted territory.

The International Energy Agency on the other hand is saying that global oil demand growth is likely to increase more slowly over the coming months, doubling down on their previous underestimation demand, because of their prediction that warmer temperatures will cut consumption, which may tilt the market back into surplus in the first half of next year. The country is expected to account for 80 per cent of the increase in global supply over the same period.

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The IEA, which tracks the energy for 29 countries, said the United States - once reliant on imports - is becoming the "undisputed global oil and gas leader".

American shale producers have been forced to endure a collapse that sent crude prices from $100 a barrel in 2014 to a low of $26 in 2016.

"Electric vehicles (EVs) are in the fast lane as a result of government support and declining battery costs but it is far too early to write the obituary of oil, as growth for trucks, aviation, petrochemicals, shipping and aviation keep pushing demand higher".

The report includes several caveats: While the USA will become a major exporter of light crude and refined products, it will remain a major importer of heavier crude oil that is used in many of its refineries.

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Hurricane Harvey contributed to a sharp decline in industry stocks held in developed nations grouped together in the OECD, the IEA said, adding this contributed to worldwide oil stocks seeing a quarterly decline for only the second time in the past two years.

"There could be further surprises ahead", the IEA said.

The report says that global energy demand is expected to grow 30 percent by 2040 and that demand for oil is not expected to peak until 2040.

In the USA, the report assumes that improvements in fuel economy standards for cars and trucks will help reduce demand for oil.

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"Yet this is precisely what is happening as a result of the USA shale revolution - both for oil and for natural gas", the IEA said.



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