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techkenyot.com August 20, 2018


Forex- Dollar Falls As China Considers Slowing US Bond Purchases

14 January 2018, 05:12 | Hattie Nash

Forex- Dollar Falls As China Considers Slowing US Bond Purchases

The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 2.57 per cent for the first time since March last year

But as in a previous episode in 2009, such warnings may prove hollow.

Bloomberg News reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter, that officials in Beijing have recommended the Chinese government lower - or even stop - its buying of US sovereign debt.

China, the biggest buyer of US sovereign bonds, could be slowing down or even halting its purchases, according to a report.

"We are far more inclined to see a move by SAFE, if confirmed, as a conventional investment decision", Eurasia Group said.

The U.S. central bank's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, has undershot its target since May 2012.

Officials at China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange also recognized that injecting politics into Treasury purchases could backfire, causing a price decline that could damage the value of the country's own holdings, the analysts said. But they added that "Doubts about (U.S. bonds) allure should not be overblown as a threat of imminent dumping".

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Why would China dump USA debt?

US Treasury yields rose to a 10-month high and the dollar fell following the news, published by Bloomberg on Wednesday.

Some investors said that the market could take the China news in its stride considering the nation's net purchases of Treasuries have already slowed "significantly".

China's foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, rose US$129.4 billion in 2017 to US$3.14 trillion, as tight regulations and a strong yuan continued to discourage capital outflows, data from China's central bank showed.

"Gold traders confirm that it was because the Government announced in advance that it was planning to sell such a large quantity of gold that the markets became depressed", The Telegraph reported then-shadow secretary to the Treasury Philip Hammond as saying in 2009.

"The dollar may fall to around ¥110" in the days to come, the official said. "It's been this symbiotic relationship for the past 15 years or so". "I don't think we're headed for investment Armageddon".

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Benchmark yields in the U.S. rose for the fifth day after officials in China reviewing the nation's foreign-exchange holdings were said to have recommended slowing or halting purchases of Treasuries.

Investors are getting anxious about what America's biggest foreign creditor might do next.

Beijing keeps a big share of its $3.1 trillion in foreign currency reserves in Treasury debt, which is considered safe and easy to trade.

China continued to express concerns about its holdings that year, however, prompting Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in July to pledge his government would ensure a "sustainable" budget deficit by 2013.

As of the end of October, China held $1.19 trillion in U.S. Treasurys.

"We don't see a material impact on the United States dollars, and our view is for further USD depreciation as the global economy picks up and "other" central banks look toward tightening their monetary policies", Grace and Haddad say. Meanwhile, China has been gradually moving to a more flexible foreign-exchange regime that would allow it to intervene less in the market.

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