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techkenyot.com August 16, 2018


Potential trade war threatens global economic growth, OECD warns

13 March 2018, 02:17 | Hattie Nash

OECD forecasts for growth in 2018 and 2019

OECD forecasts for growth in 2018 and 2019

This is up from an earlier projection of 1.2%, but is the weakest in the G20.

While broadly more optimistic than only a few months ago, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development warned a trade war could threaten the outlook, and forecast that United Kingdom growth would lag all G20 countries due to Brexit uncertainties.

In its quarterly report, the Paris-based research body said it expects growth to ease off in some of those economies this year, but not by as.

The OECD forecast the US economy would grow 2.9 percent this year and 2.8 percent in 2019, with tax cuts adding 0.5-0.75 percentage points to the outlook in both years. That was higher from a November forecast of 1.2 percent due to the broader global improvement.

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In its latest snapshot on global performance the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its growth forecast for both 2018 and 2019 to 3.9% - the highest since 2011 - from a previous estimate of 3.6%.

"Growth is steady or improving in most G20 countries and the expansion is continuing", said OECD acting chief Economist Alvaro Pereira, "[But] an escalation of trade tensions would be damaging for growth and jobs".

"We should also make full use of the help available from other markets, of other investors, of other scientists, of other technologies to complement our own", he said.

The OECD's latest economic outlook showed all but one G20 nation - Russian Federation - was set to grow at a faster pace this year than predicted last November.

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"Safeguarding the rules-based global trading system will help to support growth and jobs", it said.

But its brighter outlook came with a major caveat in the wake of the USA decision to slap import tariffs on steel and aluminum and the threat of retaliation by China, the European Union and others.

"I think it is very important to avoid escalation and to initiate a strengthening in the global dialogue to solve not only the problem for steel but to avoid bigger repercussions in terms of trade".

The OECD projects that the global economy will grow by 3.9% in both 2018 and 2019, with private investment and trade picking up on the back of strong business and household confidence.

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Mr Pereira said a global trade war would be harmful for the global economy.



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