techkenyot.com
techkenyot.com July 17, 2018


IMD predicts normal monsoon rainfall in 2018

16 April 2018, 02:45 | Glen Norman

Nagpur The Regional Meteorological Centre has issued thunderstorm and rainfall warning for the next 24 hours at isolated places of Vidarbha

Nagpur The Regional Meteorological Centre has issued thunderstorm and rainfall warning for the next 24 hours at isolated places of Vidarbha

Issuing its first Long Range Forecast (LRF) for southwest monsoon on Monday, the Indian Meteorological Department predicted normal rainfall this year. India had 95 per cent of the LPA rainfall past year - as against the first forecast of 96 per cent of the LPA (with an error margin of +/- 5 per cent). Since 2012, IMD is also using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model developed under the Monsoon Mission to generate forecasts.

The monsoon is considered normal if the average rainfall is between 96 to 104 per cent of long period average.

Hoping that the monsoon will be constant and not sporadic, IMD said that region based forecast will be available only during the second assessment in June and the date of the monsoon's onset into Kerala will be announced in mid May.

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The negative fallout of a good monsoon followed by a good harvest is that unless it is supported by strong offtake measures it could lead to a glut in many crops plummeting farm incomes.

A figure between 96 and 104 per cent of rainfall indicates a normal monsoon and between 105 and 110 per cent above normal.

However, the arrival of the monsoon and its distribution would play an important part so far as the economy was concerned, experts said. Anything between 90-96 per cent of the LPA is considered "below normal". If the average rainfall is below 90 per cent of LPA, the Monsoon is termed "deficient".

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In 2017, the average seasonal rainfall over northwest India was 95 per cent, in central India 106 per cent, in southern peninsula 92 per cent and in northeast India 89 per cent. India receives 70% of its annual rainfall in the four-month period, which in turn irrigates over half of its farm lands lacking assured irrigation.

The rains after making a steady start in June and July, went for an extended break in August and also till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall. India had faced deficient rains during monsoon season in 2015 and 2014, making both these years drought years.

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