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09 July 2018, 09:11 | Hattie Nash
Concerns that oil prices will be weighed down by a trade conflict between the United States and China have faded to some extent, analysts said. China's Ministry of Commerce stated that it had no choice but to respond to the USA, which they claim had "launched the largest war in economic history". U.S. crude futures added 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $74.14. The stoppage at the 360,000 barrels per day (bpd) Syncrude facility in Canada has contributed to a sharp reduction in the discount for U.S. crude versus Brent crude over the past month.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $77.32.
On Friday, the United States tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods were implemented.
After noting that China holds about $118 trillion in USA debt, Guilfoyle pointed out that "we've got a pretty hot economy" and that China is struggling in comparison: "They have retail sales in the hole. they've got industrial production in the hole, the Shanghai Composite [stock index] is down 17 percent year-to-date".
As part of the retaliatory response, Beijing has threatened a 25 percent tariff on USA crude imports, although it has not specified an introduction date.
In an alarming sign for Washington, and a welcome development for Iran, some locals have decided not to see which way the dice may fall.
But for a crude market focused mainly on short-term impacts, analysts see nothing but gloom around the corner: in discussing the possibility of China placing a tariff on USA oil, Commerzbank said in a note that "Chinese demand would then shift to other suppliers, [and] because the oil market is already in tight supply due to the numerous outages, this would drive worldwide prices (Brent) further up".
China has said it will impose tariffs on 545 USA goods in return. "We will switch to either Middle East or West African supplies", he said. "You are actually discrediting them and undermining their sovereignty, we expect you to be more polite".
Based on IEA estimates, the kingdom can raise production to just over 12 million bpd and sustain it at that level for an extended period, the report added.
Another option President Trump has for increasing the supply of oil is tapping into the strategic petroleum reserve to reduce pressure on oil prices.
The flipside is that since less Iranian oil exports will go unused, it may provide a solace to the USA consumer facing the highest gas prices in four years.
Rather than increase, the number of Iranians naturalized in the US declined after the deal was signed, from 10,344 in 2015 to 9,507 in 2016, according to the Department of Homeland Security.
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