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Likely Impact of US-China Trade War: Prices Up, Growth Down
11 July 2018, 09:47 | Hattie Nash
Coding trade high tech
China's threatened tariffs on $34 billion of U.S. goods will take effect from the beginning of the day on July 6, a person with knowledge of the plan toldReuters, amid worsening trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. On Thursday, Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng hit back at "threats and blackmail" ahead of the planned USA tariff hike.
Beijing will hit back with tariffs initially on almost $30 billion in United States goods, also taking effect Friday, including vehicles and many agricultural and food products, such as soybeans, which will hit USA farmers hard.
"There are no winners in a trade war, and the trend is pointing in the wrong direction", Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, said.
The price of US soybeans has plunged 17 percent over the past month on fears that Chinese tariffs will cut off American farmers from a market that buys about 60 percent of their soybean exports. Its responses so far, however, have been more tightly targeted for political impact and it does have a range of non-tariff measures it could use to damage United States companies within China and their supply chains.
President Donald Trump has warned that the U.S.is ready to target an additional $200 billion in Chinese imports - and then $300 billion more - if Beijing refuses to yield to USA demands and continues to retaliate.
In June, the British leader warned both Trump and European Union leaders of the dangers of entering a tit-for-tat trade war.
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Customs officers had delayed the clearance of some USA goods on Beijing's penalty list last Friday, as they waited for official instructions from the central government on whether to start collecting the new import tariffs.
Trump repeatedly has slammed what he describes as Beijing's underhanded economic treatment of the United States.
The Chinese currency, the yuan, has dropped 3.5 percent against the USA dollar over the past month, giving Chinese companies a price edge over their US competition.
USA officials accuse China of building its industrial dominance by stealing the "crown jewels" of American technological know-how through cyber-theft, forced transfers of intellectual property and state-sponsored corporate acquisitions.
The World Trade Organisation says the trade spat has already hurt forward-looking indicators, and business surveys showed a hit to manufacturing in Europe and Asia in June, with German factory growth at an 18-month low.
Li says the USA introduction of tariffs "benefits no one". Sinovel has agreed to pay AMSC a total of $52.5 million in restitution.
These would hit US energy exports, such as coal and crude oil, among other areas.
US President Donald Trump gestures during a Make America Great Again rally in Great Falls, Montana, U.S., July 5, 2018.
China has retaliated by imposing a similar 25% tariff on 545 U.S. products, also worth a total of $34bn.
"We can probably say that the trade war has officially started", said Chen Feixiang, professor of applied economics at Shanghai Jiaotong University's Antai Colege of Economics and Management.
Brussels shares Washington's concern about China's closed markets and what western governments say is Beijing's manipulation of trade to dominate global markets. In particular the US Smoot-Hawley tariffs enacted in 1930 are thought to have inspired a trade war, and led to a massive decline in global trade. "I will try my best to support domestic products". Beijing swiftly retaliated in kind.
US and European shares were boosted by reassuring economic data from Germany, and as automakers' shares .sxap jumped, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel saying she would back lowering European Union tariffs on USA auto imports after Washington offered to scrap threatened tariffs on European cars.
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