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10 October 2018, 07:41 | Hattie Nash
Nigeria To Witness Sluggish Economic Growth In 2019
The ongoing trade war between the US and China could start having material effects on the economies of both countries within the coming years, according to new projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In the latest report, Taiwan's major trade partner South Korea is projected to grow 2.8% and 2.6% for 2018 and 2019, respectively, downward revisions by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from previous forecasts.
In the IMF's most recent World Economic Outlook (WEO), the global financial authority forecast the Philippines's inflation numbers to hit 3 percent in 2023.
This acceleration, the world body said, reflected a rebound from transitory shocks (the currency exchange initiative and implementation of the national Goods and Services Tax), with strengthening investment and robust private consumption.
It said that a full-blown trade war between the USA and China would put a significant dent in economic recovery.
The IMF expects the US economy to grow 2.9 percent this year, the fastest pace since 2005 and unchanged from the July forecast. "Notwithstanding the present demand momentum, we have downgraded our 2019 USA growth forecast owing to the recently enacted tariffs on a wide range of imports from China and China's retaliation".
The fund upgraded its forecast for Japan slightly to 1.1 per cent growth this year, up 0.1 point from July.
"India's medium-term growth prospects remain strong at 7.75 per cent, benefiting from ongoing structural reform", it added.
The People's Bank of China announced on Sunday that it would add more liquidity to the economy by cutting the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves at the central bank.
The IMF expects the USA economy to continue growing this year at 2.9%, but sees that rate falling to 2.5% next year amid the country's escalating trade war with China.
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In July, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo voiced concerns over any International Monetary Fund bailout being used to repay Chinese loans to Islamabad.
"However, further reforms are needed to increase policy certainty, improve the efficiency of state-owned enterprises, enhance flexibility in the labour market, improve basic education, and align training with business needs", it stated.
The new projection is a marginal reduction of the 3.9 per cent projection of last April's World Economic Outlook report.
One of the most comprehensive studies of the state of banking and markets since the financial crisis warns that "dangerous undercurrents" are a rising threat to the world economy.
It said core inflation (excluding all food and energy items) in India had risen to about 6 per cent as a result of a narrowing output gap and pass-through effects from higher energy prices and exchange rate depreciation.
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