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Trump Rallies on Eve of Midterm Referendum on His Presidency
06 November 2018, 07:58 | Hattie Nash
Barack Obama became the first black president of the United States in 2008-- Pinterest
We can argue about the definition of "wave", but 40-45 seats certainly qualifies, and Democrats would also likely have at least a 50-50 tie in the Senate (though Vice President Mike Pence would still give the GOP control).
"The hard thing for Canadians to know is what kind of Democratic Party are you getting after this election", he said. That result, considered less likely even within the White House, would embolden the president as he launches his own re-election bid. "There are a couple of honest polls that are showing some very, very good promise tomorrow".
All 435 seats in the House of Representative seats are on the ballot with 35 Senate seats in play.
But if you are looking at this purely from the vantage point of Trump's self-interest - particularly as it relates to winning re-election in 2020 - there is a compelling case to be made that a Democratic House might be a good thing for the president.
"If you do see a turn against Democrats in Midwestern states such as in and Missouri, I think it is fair to say that the Republicans who are winning in those places are probably going to be more critical of trade, whereas the Democrats in those states are going to be a more centrist wing of the Democratic party", Hurl explained.
"His honing in on this message is going to cost us seats", said one senior House GOP campaign source.
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"They are Trumpsters. Getting that segment of the electorate out in 2016 was critical to Trump's win in 2016, and getting them out to vote in 2018 can only help Republicans", said University of New Hampshire political science professor Andrew Smith. His late strategy seems to be all about motivating the base for key red-state Senate races.
Meanwhile, former president Barack Obama delivered doughnuts to Democratic campaign volunteers in a House district in Virginia, where candidate Jennifer Wexton is challenging Republican Barbara Comstock. "We're taking care of ourselves for a change, folks", Trump said at a rally in Houston on October 22.
As a rule of thumb, the party that controls the presidency loses seats in the midterm elections. The average loss in the years since World War II is 24 seats. Republicans have commanding majorities in both chambers.
"I feel like this is going to be really, really close", he told Fox News.
In Chattanooga, Tennessee, to bolster the prospects of Republican Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn, Trump once again warned that caravans of immigrants are on their way to flood across the southern border.
"But no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats", Silver added. Following the controversy surrounding the Senate confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanuagh, the Generic Congressional Ballot was tied for two weeks, but then Democrats moved back ahead.
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"It all depends on turnout", he said.
In Texas, early voting has exceeded the entire turnout in 2014. What 6 November will tell us is this: Do more people wooed by Trump's fiery rhetoric on immigration turn up to vote or has he also succeeded in angering more immigration moderates to vote against him? "But the greatest job that I'll ever have and the greatest title I'll ever have is that of a mom". In an interview with The Associated Press last month, Trump said he would not accept blame for a GOP defeat at the polls.
Trump has maintained a busy campaign schedule in the final stretch of the race, with 11 rallies over six days. He has campaigned in 24 states for Republicans.
But there was little softening in tone as he attended rallies in Ohio, Indiana and Missouri, where his hard-line rhetoric on immigration remained.
By Election Day, both sides are expected to have spent more than US$5 billion, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. But at a rally in Cleveland later, he conceded, "In a sense, I am on the ticket". "You have to go out and vote". In fact, a Trump campaign statement earlier in the day noted that the president "will be pleased" to have Greenwood perform in person.
Trump's shadow has hung over the midterm elections that will determine the future of his presidency, with the monthslong fight serving as a testing ground for his nationalist appeals and the strength of the coalition that powered him to the White House two years ago.
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Support for the Republicans remains reliant on Mr Trump's core base - older, conservative, largely rural blue-collar white men and women. "If you look at his final travel schedule the two things that stick out on your map is Florida and OH, not just because of Senate races but because of gubernatorial races".
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