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Democrats need to win back the Obama-Trump voter. Will they succeed?
07 November 2018, 02:19 | Hattie Nash
Susan Walsh APPresident Donald Trump speaks during a rally in Estero Fla. Oct. 31 2018
What top forecasters are saying about the state of the race as voters head to the polls; will Republicans see a late surge, similar to 2016, as a result of President Donald Trump's incessant campaigning?
Democrats are getting some high-profile campaigners to help them, including former President Barack Obama, who rallied voters in his home state of IL.
But what if that doesn't happen?
The Daily Beast has examined that "unthinkable" scenario in some depth.
"After all this work, all these volunteers, it would be absolutely shattering", Democratic strategist Paul Begala told the website.
Federal and state officials have been working for almost two years to shore up the nation's election infrastructure from cyberattacks by Russians or others seeking to disrupt the voting process. No attempt to prepare for the potential disaster.
Democrats are favoured by election forecasters to pick up the minimum of 23 House seats they need for a majority, which would enable them to stymie Mr Trump's legislative agenda and investigate his administration.
The predictive model at FiveThirtyEight now projects an 88 per cent chance of them winning the seats required.
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On the eve of the mid-term elections, Democrats continue to hold a double-digit lead over Republicans in a generic congressional ballot among likely voters, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. "I don't think Trump has done that at all".
And there is no guarantee the polls are correct. It all depends on how accurately they have predicted voter turnout.
However, after an election campaign marred by extremist violence, opponents called the polls a chance to curtail a president they accuse of deliberately stirring racism and social division in the search for votes.
Republicans have played up the robust economy, but also used scare tactics and accused the Democratic Party of wanting to turn America into a socialist disaster rife with criminal illegal immigrants.
Voters cast their ballots for Early Voting at the Los Angeles County Registrar's Office in Norwalk, California.
Of course, Democrats have been in this position before: Two years ago, polling indicated that Hillary Clinton was more likely become the next President of the United States, and she fell short in a night that shocked the country. Here is something with a broad base of support among voters of both parties, a commonsense idea that has no ideological component. You go back to 2001, 2000, they think they got jobbed when the Supreme Court stole the election in the Florida recount away from Algore. It's an area that serves as a pretty good example of Republicans' problems in the Trump era with highly educated voters in suburban areas, especially women. Majority votes in both the Senate and the House are needed to pass laws.
What if their nightmare comes true again? "Democrats have to win back the House and stop Trump".
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Sanders offered a less restrained version of progressivism, which resonated with millions of Democratic voters. In the wake of Clinton's defeat to Trump, some wondered whether he could have won in her place.
Whether they flip the House or not, Democrats are still expected to gain seats in the chamber, given the favorable political environment for Democrats. "It's an awakening of the Democratic Party".
Republicans were keenly aware that losing their majority will hamstring his political agenda over the next two years.
Democrats are acutely aware of the risks they are facing this time around.
"Obama's got a unique combination of things, and that is going to be quite hard to replicate", Professor Brendon O'Connor told news.com.au.
"He is kind of a towering figure in the party".
Others, like former MA governor Deval Patrick, California Senator Kamala Harris and former vice president Joe Biden, have been a little more active.
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