techkenyot.com
techkenyot.com January 20, 2019


Dollar falls for a third day on rate pause bets

11 January 2019, 06:38 | Hattie Nash

US dollar eases in Asian trade on expectations of Fed pause

Federal Reserve is flexible and aware of risks says Powell

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan put on 1.3 percent.

MSCI's world equity index .MIWD00000PUS , which tracks shares in 47 countries, rose 0.88 percent, its highest level since december 19.

"The main thing is the administration's implied progress on talks with China".

"There are a number of questions that remain unanswered", Shaw said.

The strong climbs in Asia followed a stock surge on Wall Street Friday, after better-than-expected US nonfarm payroll figures suggested a healthy labor market and eased investors' concerns about the potential for a USA economic slowdown.

The Federal Reserve may only need to raise interest rates once in 2019, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday, focusing on business executives' nervousness about the economy and a global slowdown as factors that may hold the U.S. central bank back.

Markets had already gone much further to price in a major chance of a cut in rates this year, and some of that exuberance was tempered by Powell's emphasis on the word "patient" in his speech on Friday.

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The Australian dollar, whose fortunes are closely correlated with China, gained half a percent to $0.7140. "The reserve requirement ratio cut has raised hope that the economy will get better, and investors expect the yuan to remain steady as China and the U.S. hold trade talks in Beijing this week".

The euro advanced 0.22 percent versus the dollar while the Australian dollar, often considered a barometer of global risk appetite, rose 0.2 pct and touched its highest level since December 20.

"Clearly markets are now pricing in the risk of a cut in 2019", said Shaw of Investec.

The combination of a strong jobs report and a dovish Fed helped the Dow end Friday with gains of 3.29 percent, while the S&P 500 jumped 3.43 percent and the Nasdaq 4.26 percent.

Nomura chief China economist Ting Lu said Beijing's latest moves to unlock liquidity in the financial system "reflect its increasing concerns about looming growth headwinds and its increased willingness to step up policy easing and stimulus".

"If, as we expect, global economies slow down in 2019 but avoid recession, and USA interest rates peak, there is likely to be a risk rally", they said in a note.

He added that the USA central bank would not hesitate to adjust its balance sheet reduction plan if it causes problems in the markets.

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"Our Bull & Bear Indicator has fallen to an "extreme bear" reading, triggering the first "buy" signal for risk assets since June 2016", they wrote in a note.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.2 percent.The euro bought $1.1415, up 0.2 percent.The pound rose 0.2 percent to $1.2749.

The currency could not even hold early gains on the yen, lapsing back to 108.21.

The Indian rupee rose to its 5-month high on Monday after the U.S. dollar weakened on the possibility of a pause in the interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve after China and the United States meet today for trade negotiations.

Oil prices firmed after Brent bounced about 9.3 percent last week.

The crude benchmark rose 54 cents on Monday to $57.61 a barrel, while US crude futures gained 53 cents to $48.49. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy.

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