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techkenyot.com May 21, 2019


Oil gains as Saudi Arabia stands by OPEC cuts, United States drilling drops

12 March 2019, 09:38 | Hattie Nash

Oil gains as Saudi Arabia stands by OPEC cuts, United States drilling drops

Khalid al Falih speaks during a news conference in Riyadh

Crude output in the United States will rise almost 2.8 million bpd, growing to 13.7 million bpd in 2024 from just under 11 million bpd in 2018, the IEA said.

The report comes as OPEC countries and allied major oil producers led by Russian Federation are trying to balance the oil market.

Crude oil prices rose marginally on Monday, driven by comments from Saudi Arabian oil minister, Khalid al-Falih, that an end to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)-led supply cuts was unlikely before June.

For Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, Mr. Falih said output in April was expected to remain at this month's level of 9.8 million bpd. However, in a boost for the producers, the IEA does not see a peak in global demand yet.

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"Part of the pushback against OPEC+ efforts has been this idea of unrelenting growth in US oil production, primarily shale".

While OPEC members agreed to cut about 800,000 barrels, their non-OPEC allies led by Russian Federation resolved to cut their output by 400,000 barrels, in a bid to strengthen crude oil prices, tighten and stabilize the crude oil market.

Gross exports from Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia are expected to hold steady at current levels of more than 8 million barrels per day and more than 9 million barrels per day, respectively, while the US increases exports from 4.5 million in 2018 to almost 6 million this year and more than 8 million barrels per day in 2021.

"The second wave of the USA shale revolution is coming", the IEA's Fatih Birol said. "The second wave of shale production growth is coming".

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"Ongoing trade disputes between major powers and a disorderly Brexit could lead to a reduction in the rate of growth of worldwide trade and oil demand", the IEA said in its medium-term oil-market report, which covers the period to 2024.

Even so, the IEA does not expect moves such as greater adoption of electric cars to put a cap on demand growth yet. "It will see the United States account for 70% of the rise in global oil production ... with profound implications for the geopolitics of energy". This report could trigger a volatile reaction because the markets are sensitive to rising USA production.

The International Energy Agency last month left its demand growth forecast for 2019 unchanged from January at 1.4 million barrels per day.

"The increase will have to compensate for steep losses from Iran and Venezuela, as well as a still-fragile situation in Libya", the IEA said.

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